Blue should gain ground for a race rather than start a blitz. The race is level at 160 pips each, Blue has a checker on the bar, and White holds an anchor on Blue’s 5 point, so a blitz is not available, but White has left blots on Blue’s 4, 15 and 16 points. Blue plays Bar/16*, entering and hitting with one checker. The hit sends a White checker back 16 pips, turns a level race into a 25-pip lead, and makes White enter before moving any other checker. The blot on the 16 point is exposed to 13 rolls, but White’s inner board holds only the 6 point, so a return hit is a lower risk than usual. Making the anchor with Bar/20 24/20 hands White a free turn to tidy up three blots. It loses 0.136 equity, a BLUNDER. Bar/20 8/4* loses 0.395 equity, a BLUNDER.

Blue should attack rather than rely on the race. Blue trails by 23 pips, 167 to 144, with both back checkers on the 24 point, so racing alone is a poor plan and Blue needs White on the bar. White has blots on Blue’s 1 and 3 points and a third on White’s 5 point, while Blue’s inner board holds only the 6 point. Blue plays 8/3* 3/1*, hitting both blots with one checker and putting two White checkers on the bar. White needs both dice just to enter, so only a doublet lets White do anything more this turn, and only 11 rolls, those containing a 1, hit Blue’s blot on the 1 point. The quieter 24/22 8/3* hits once, but White then enters with one die and hits one of Blue’s three blots with 35 rolls. It loses 0.064 equity, an ERROR.

Blue should escape White’s blocking points and turn toward a race. The race is level, 156 to 155, White’s two back checkers hold Blue’s 1 point, and White’s checkers on the midpoint and 8 point are ready to cover the 18 point, which would give White four blocking points in front of Blue’s back checkers. Blue plays 24/18*, hitting the slot and sending that checker back 18 pips, so Blue leads by 23 pips after the play. The blot on the 18 point faces 21 return shots, but White’s inner board holds only the 4 and 6 points, so a return hit costs Blue pips but rarely a whole turn. Making the 4 point with 8/4 6/4 leaves White free to cover the bar point and hem in both back checkers. It loses 0.038 equity, an ERROR. Covering with 13/7 loses 0.194 equity, a BLUNDER.

Blue should attack to deny White an advanced anchor on the 4 point. Blue leads by 41 pips, 152 to 193, White has three checkers on Blue’s 1 point and a fourth on the 4 point, and White’s inner board holds only the 6 point. Blue plays 14/4* 8/3(2), hitting on the 4 point and making the 3 point with the other two 5s. The hit costs White only 4 pips, but it keeps four White checkers back and denies White the 4 point, where an anchor would give White a home. White has 18 rolls to hit back on the 4 point, and a return hit sends one Blue checker against a one-point board, a lower risk than conceding the anchor. Making the 3 point quietly with 14/9 13/3 8/3 hands White a free roll, and any 3 makes the anchor. It loses 0.153 equity, a BLUNDER.

Blue should attack and run at the same time. Blue leads by 33 pips, 156 to 189, White has blots on Blue’s 3 and 4 points and an inner board of only the 6 point, and Blue’s lone checker on the 20 point sits where White’s builders on the 17, 19 and 21 points can attack it. The 6 decides the play. Blue plays 20/14 8/4*, hitting and moving the back checker to the 14 point, where only 7 rolls reach it, instead of leaving it on the 20 point, where 13 rolls hit it. White must enter before moving any other checker, and Blue’s blot on the 4 point, exposed to 20 rolls, faces only a one-point board if hit, a lower risk. Bringing a builder with 13/7 8/4* leaves four blots and loses 0.045 equity, an ERROR. Splitting with 24/18 8/4* loses 0.051 equity, an ERROR.

Blue should race while slowing White’s development. Blue leads by 16 pips, 133 to 149, each side holds an anchor on the opposing 5 point, and White has four blocking points from the 16 point to the 19 point in front of Blue’s anchor, so Blue’s back checkers need time. Blue plays 13/10* 6/4, sending White’s spare back 10 pips and making the 4 point. Blue leads by 31 pips after the play, and White must enter before moving any other checker. The blots on the 2 and 10 points are exposed to 17 rolls, but White’s inner board holds only the 6 point, so a return hit is a lower risk. Making the 4 point safely with 7/4 6/4 lets the spare come home. It loses 0.023 equity, an ERROR.

Blue needs an attacking plan to recover from the racing deficit. Blue trails by 52 pips, 175 to 123, with a checker on the bar and two more on the 24 point. White has slotted Blue’s 18 point and has a blot on Blue’s 4 point. Blue plays Bar/18*, entering on the 21 point and hitting on the 18 point, sending the White checker back 18 pips and cutting the deficit to 27. White must enter before covering anything, and Blue’s builders on the 6 and 8 points bear on White’s blot on the 4 point. The blot on the 18 point faces 17 return shots against White’s three-point board, a real risk, but the safe play leaves a large racing deficit and lets White strengthen the blockade. Anchoring with Bar/21 24/21 loses 0.136 equity, a BLUNDER.

Blue should keep attacking, but with builders in place rather than all at once. Blue leads by 23 pips, 150 to 173, White has a checker on the bar and three blots on Blue’s 1, 4 and 5 points, yet Blue’s inner board holds only the 3 and 6 points, so this is a series of hits, not a closeout. Blue plays 13/11 6/5*, hitting on the 5 point and adding a builder on the 11 point. Two White checkers sit on the bar, Blue keeps three on the 6 point, and builders on the 8 and 11 points aim at the 5 and 4 points. The blot on the 5 point faces 13 rolls. The double hit 6/5* 6/4* strips the 6 point and leaves blots on the 4 and 5 points that 21 rolls hit, with fewer spares left to cover them. It loses 0.044 equity, an ERROR.

Blue should attack White’s loose checkers and build a board. Blue trails by 24 pips, 188 to 164, but holds an anchor on White’s 4 point with three checkers, while White has a checker on the bar, blots on Blue’s 2 and 5 points, and an inner board of only the 6 point. Blue plays 13/11(2) 9/5*, making the 11 point with two of the 2s and hitting on the 5 point with the other two. Two White checkers need both dice to enter, so Blue’s four blots are hit by only 13 rolls in all. The new 11 point gives Blue blocking points on the 3, 6, 8 and 11 points and two builders aimed at the 5 point. Hitting with 13/5* spends the roll on one checker and makes no new point. It loses 0.026 equity, an ERROR.

Blue should attack to protect the exposed checkers. The race is nearly level, 165 to 167, Blue holds an anchor on White’s 5 point, and White has three blots in Blue’s inner board, on the 1, 2 and 5 points, while White’s own inner board holds only the 4 and 6 points. Blue plays 8/2* 6/5*, putting two White checkers on the bar, so White needs both dice to enter and only a doublet leaves White anything to do afterward. Blue’s blots on the 2 and 5 points are exposed to 22 rolls, but a return hit sends a Blue checker back against only two White points, a lower risk. Making the bar point with 13/7 8/7 leaves White’s three checkers in place and Blue’s blots on the 9 and 23 points, where 34 rolls hit one of them. It loses 0.029 equity, an ERROR.