Blue should anchor first and prime second. Blue holds the 5, 6, 7 and 8 points, White holds the 17, 18 and 19 points, and the race is nearly level at 152 to 148. White’s spares on the 17 and 18 points aim at the 20 and 21 points, where a new point would trap Blue’s two back checkers, while White’s own back checkers sit as blots on Blue’s 1 and 3 points. Blue plays Bar/21 24/21, entering and making White’s 4 point in one move. Blue’s back checkers stop being targets, and Blue can wait for White’s blots to run into the four blocking points. Hitting loose with Bar/21 6/3* leaves blots on the 3, 21 and 24 points, and 17 rolls hit the 3 point, any 3 from the bar or a 2 from the 1 point. It loses 0.129 equity, a BLUNDER.

Blue should hit, because the prime turns a loose hit into a trap. Blue trails by 29 pips, 165 to 136, with four checkers back, but Blue holds the 3, 4, 5 and 6 points and White’s two back checkers on Blue’s 1 point are already behind them. Blue plays Bar/22 13/11*, entering and sending a third White checker to the bar. White enters only with a 1 or a 2, 20 rolls of 36, and the blot on the 11 point cannot be hit this turn because White must enter before anything else moves. With three checkers behind four blocking points, White’s 29-pip lead means little. Making the anchor with Bar/22 24/22 is solid but lets White cover the blot on the 11 point and start bringing the lead home. It loses 0.170 equity, a BLUNDER.

Blue should build a prime to contain White’s last back checker. Blue leads by 5 pips, 150 to 155, holds the 2, 6 and 7 points with four checkers stacked on the 6 point, and White’s last back checker sits alone on Blue’s 1 point. Blue plays 7/5 6/5, making the 5 point for a three-point inner board while the remaining checkers on the 6, 7 and 8 points serve as builders for the 4 point. The 5 point is the point Blue wants most, and making it also unstacks the 6 point. The blots on the 7 and 8 points can be hit only by the White checker on the 1 point, and White’s one-point inner board keeps that risk low. Splitting with 24/21 puts a blot in front of White’s checkers on the 12, 16, 17 and 19 points. It loses 0.083 equity, a BLUNDER.

Blue’s plan is to trap White’s last checker, not to race. Blue trails by 26 pips, 117 to 91, but holds the 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8 points with spares on the 6, 7 and 8 points and an anchor on White’s bar point, while White’s last checker sits on Blue’s 1 point. Blue plays 8/2 7/4, slotting the 2 point right in front of that checker. Only a 1 hits, 11 rolls of 36, and when White misses Blue covers with any 2 or 4 from the new spares on the 4 and 6 points, leaving White’s checker facing six blocking points. If the slot is hit, the anchor on White’s bar point keeps Blue in the game against White’s five-point board. Running with 18/9 gives up that anchor and leaves two blots while the trap stays open. It loses 0.121 equity, a BLUNDER.

This is a priming battle, and Blue’s back checkers must move before Blue’s timing is gone. Blue holds the 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9 points with three White checkers trapped on Blue’s 3 point, while White holds the 18, 19, 20 and 21 points in front of Blue’s two checkers on the 24 point. Blue has only three spares, so rolls wasted inside the board soon break the prime. Blue plays 24/23 24/22, bringing both back checkers to the edge of White’s prime, where a 5 or a 6 next turn escapes or hits White’s blot on the 17 point. Playing 24/22 6/5 wastes the 1 on a spare and leaves a lone checker on the 24 point that only a 1 or a 2 can move. It loses 0.096 equity, a BLUNDER.

Blue should get the back checkers moving while White’s blocking points still have a gap. Blue holds the 4, 5, 6 and 7 points against White’s blots on Blue’s 1 and 3 points and trails by 11 pips, 157 to 146. White holds the 16, 17, 19 and 20 points, but the 18 point, White’s bar point, is still open and White’s inner board has only two points. Blue plays 24/18, planting a checker on that bar point. White can hit with a 1, a 2 or a 6, but the hit costs Blue little against a two-point board and leaves White’s builders exposed to return shots. If White instead makes the 18 point, Blue’s checkers on the 24 point sit behind a five-point prime. The double hit 7/3* 3/1* breaks the 7 point and leaves Blue blots on the 1 and 7 points, so the prime shrinks to three points while White has two checkers to enter and hit with. It loses 0.136 equity, a BLUNDER.

Blue should contain White’s back checkers rather than race. Blue trails by 18 pips, 166 to 148, holds the 6 and 7 points and an anchor on White’s 3 point, and has a blot on the 4 point, while White holds Blue’s 1 point with a third checker on the 5 point. Blue plays Bar/24 8/4, entering with the 1 and covering the blot to make the 4 point, so Blue holds the 4, 6 and 7 points against three White checkers. The more back checkers White has, the more each blocking point is worth, and the new point also shelters Blue’s back checkers. Blots remain on the 8 and 24 points, but White’s two-point inner board keeps the risk low. Running with Bar/20 leaves the 4 point blot in front of White’s anchor. It loses 0.123 equity, a BLUNDER.

Blue should contain White’s split back checkers rather than try to race. Blue trails by 17 pips, 136 to 119, White has blots on Blue’s 3 and 5 points, and Blue holds the 2, 6 and 8 points with an anchor on White’s bar point. Blue plays 13/4, slotting the 4 point with the 6, 8 and 13 points as cover. Only the White checker on the 3 point can hit the slot, and only with a 1, so when White misses Blue can cover and aim at three inner board points against two loose White checkers. Playing safe with 13/8 6/2 stacks a fourth checker on the 2 point. It loses 0.090 equity, a BLUNDER.

Blue’s plan is to escape now and outlast White’s back game. Blue leads by 70 pips, 166 to 236, and holds the 6, 7, 8 and 9 points, while White has eight checkers back on Blue’s 3, 4 and 5 points and one made inner board point. Blue plays 24/15, bringing the last back checker out while a hit costs almost nothing, because Blue re-enters at once against a one-point board. Left on the 24 point, that checker would have to run later, alone, past White’s spares on the 10 and 12 points against a stronger board. Blue wins a gammon in nearly 30 percent of games, the usual price of a back game with too many checkers back. Bringing two builders down with 13/9 13/8 stacks the 8 and 9 points and leaves the back checker on the 24 point to run later, alone. It loses 0.129 equity, a BLUNDER.

Blue should prepare an attack rather than hit before the inner board is ready. The race is level, 147 to 149, and Blue holds the 4, 6 and 8 points with an anchor on White’s 3 point, while White has blots on Blue’s 1 and 7 points and already holds the 19, 20 and 21 points. Blue plays 8/2 6/2, making the 2 point for a three-point inner board with no Blue blot anywhere. The 2 point is a deep point, but here it beats a hit on the bar point, which gains few pips and leaves a blot facing a return shot while a hit Blue checker would face White’s three-point board. Blue’s checkers on the 13 point still bear on the 7 point, so the hit can come later. Hitting with 13/7* 7/3 loses 0.107 equity, a BLUNDER.